2011 MotoGP preedictions

[LoDownSinner]

Casey Stoner.

That is all...

[OBX-RIDER]

By every report the new Honda is impressive...and Stoner has the raw ability....but Casey has nerves of steel one day and of silly putty the next. All it will take is for Adriana to be miffed at him and Casey will blow it.

You can go with the machine...I will go with the man...and the man in 2011 will be Jorge Lorenzo.

[shonuff]

As much as it pains me to say it, my money is on Jorge. Although, I would much rather see Spies dominate the season.

[Prof._HH]

This could be the season of the Duc. I'm going to go with Rossi w/ strong support from Hayden. I'm hoping Rossi will overcome Hayden's seeming inability to help the engineers develop the bike.

[OBX-RIDER]

With three very good riders and an upgraded machine it appears Honda is pulling out all the stops to win the championship this year. Frankly I just don't think either Pedrosa or Stoner have that unnameable ability to bring off the "kill" to win the championship without some huge advantage. Stoner won before when he had machine and tires over Rossi....with just a better machine...I don't think it will happen. Pedrosa has days of brilliance...but not a season of it. Either of them has shown a clear tendency to self destruct in the face of adversity.

I think you will see a number of podiums by Ben this year with a top 3 finish a possibility.

Valentino will win races...but I think Lorenzo has his measure.

Lorenzo is arrogant...but in the same way high scoring fighter pilots were arrogant...in a calculating capable manner. When everyone "knew" he would leave Yamaha... I knew he would stay...because he wanted to beat Rossi flying the same make and model fighter. He has the number 1 plate, and he intends to keep it. You may chafe at his arrogance but you can't deny his skill.

[spotbeagle]

This could be the season of the Duc. I'm going to go with Rossi w/ strong support from Hayden. I'm hoping Rossi will overcome Hayden's seeming inability to help the engineers develop the bike.

+1 I'm hoping the Duc team does well. I'd like to see Rossi win it all on yet another brand. Hayden was starting to do much better on the Duc as the season went on. He and Rossi were a great team before on Honda.

Now that Spies has had a year on this circuit, he now knows the bike and the tracks. Hoping he can pull out some wins, just don't think he'll finish #1 at the end of the season. I give him another year or two for that.

[LoDownSinner]

+Now that Spies has had a year on this circuit, he now knows the bike and the tracks.
:crackup: Yep, with the collection of keychains he has now, there'll be no more mistaking an obvious seahorse for a shrimp! :crackup:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiVCbMlXxNM

But Stoner will dominate.

[weaver]

That reminds me, I need to pick up some ice cream and pretzels. ;)

[OBX-RIDER]

Stoner's dominance at Sepang lasted ... one day. Today Pedrosa beat him by nearly 7/10ths of a second...which is also the difference in lap time between Stoner and Hector Barbera who was 10th. Spies was 7 hundredths behind Stoner in 3rd, the fastest Ducati finished 11th piloted by Nicky Hayden.

So does Sepang mean anything.

Last years 2nd day finishes were 1. Rossi 2. Stoner 3. Lorenzo 4. Pedrosa 5. Spies 6. Dovizioso

and what were the final results. 1. Lorenzo 2. Pedrosa 3. Rossi 4. Stoner 5. Dovizioso 6. Spies

Note the top 6 at Sepang finished in the top 6 and the top 4 at Sepang finished in the top 4. Lorenzo and Rossi ,Pedrosa and Stoner, Spies and Dovizioso all swapped positions.

The fortunes or misfortunes of racing can make big differences but Sepang at least speaks of potential for winning.

I think Honda may have the best bike...but taking the whole package into context I think Yamaha has the best men for the long haul that is a racing season.

[asp125]

I think Lorenzo has the best chance, not having to adapt to a new team and new maufacturer. I think Spies will move up this year to challenge for a few wins.

[AZridered]

This could be the season of the Duc. I'm going to go with Rossi w/ strong support from Hayden. I'm hoping Rossi will overcome Hayden's seeming inability to help the engineers develop the bike.

Of interest here are some comments made at the Vroom Festival. The annual event where the Marlboro teams (Ferrari and Ducati) unveil their new machinery and introduce new drivers and riders. I found some BBC video from the festival, mostly in Italian, but some English. A few of the team engineers were interviewed, mostly about how they felt about Rossi joining, their comments were interesting. They noted that after the Valencia test, Rossi's comments and criticisms were in line with what Nicky had been telling them about the bike. It was also commented that they thought that it would make their job easier having two riders who wanted the same thing from the equipment. This could lead one to believe that Nicky was riding a bike that was built for a substantially different riding style.

[Prof._HH]

I really don't follow the ins and outs of the garage talk but I always thought Duc was setting up both bikes for Stoner. I didn't know if it was because Hayden really couldn't help them figure it out or if they didn't give his suggestions much weight. If I understand some of the history correctly, that's what Honda did to Hayden with Pedrosa. The difference then was Hayden still won on Pedro's bike. I'm really hoping the combination of Rossi and Hayden make a strong team.

On another note, be honest now, who would have put Simoncelli on top of the speed charts for the weekend? He's a more than capable rider but with guys like Stoner, Pedrosa, Lorentho, Rossi, Spies etc.. out there, I wouldn't have picked him (esp. on a "not-factory team" bike)?

[LoDownSinner]

I really don't follow the ins and outs of the garage talk but I always thought Duc was setting up both bikes for Stoner. I didn't know if it was because Hayden really couldn't help them figure it out or if they didn't give his suggestions much weight. If I understand some of the history correctly, that's what Honda did to Hayden with Pedrosa. The difference then was Hayden still won on Pedro's bike. I'm really hoping the combination of Rossi and Hayden make a strong team.
You know, I think Stoner is probably a lot like Rob Turner (one of the guys James and I race with). They get on the bike, ride the absolute wheels off of it and either win, crash, or lose interest if the bike isn't competitive. Both of the seem to have the ability to adapt to the quirks of different machines and work hard to find unique strengths to offset the unique weaknesses of a specific machine. But when all parts of the ride are competitive with nothing subpar? Both have a good chance of dominating.


On another note, be honest now, who would have put Simoncelli on top of the speed charts for the weekend? He's a more than capable rider but with guys like Stoner, Pedrosa, Lorentho, Rossi, Spies etc.. out there, I wouldn't have picked him (esp. on a "not-factory team" bike)?
I haven't been able to find comprehensive lap charts, but I'm willing to bet Simoncelli wasn't consistently as fast as some of the other riders. I could be off base, but I'll bet Simoncelli's fast lap was a 'flyer' as compared to the consistency of someone like Nicky.

[MattyBallgame]

Lorenzo on the bike Rossi perfected......

[OBX-RIDER]

Everything I've read indicates that Rossi has done a lot of great work on the Yamaha ... but I still believe the primary reason Lorenzo stayed with Yamaha was to beat Rossi without having to listen to all the "it wasn't Lorenzo it was his bike/tires" stuff. When you beat a guy riding exactly what he's riding it tends to shut that stuff up.

Which brings us to Casey Stoner and his possibly fatal flaw. Stoner is reported to have been very upset with all the talk that his 2007 championship was more about his bike and his tires than his riding ability. And upset when he was booed at some British venues. And upset when derogatory comments where made about his absence due to illness. And really upset when Rossi toward the end of last season made statements that it was hard to tell how good the Ducati was because Stoner wasn't riding very hard. Sticks and Stones may break bones...but that young man gets seriously torqued at trash talk. And the other riders know it...and it's like blood in the water among sharks...

There was much the same talk when Rossi won his first championships. He was so much faster than the rest of the field lots of people credited his Honda as much as him. Then he went to Yamaha...and the rest is history.

There was a similar thing with Ben Spies a few years ago. Talk from the unwashed about his AMA Championship being more about his "cheater" bike than his abilities. So how did Ben respond. The same way he handled the mind games by his team mate, 6 time champion Matt Mladin. He let his riding do the talk for him. And won the championship again...and again. Of course it took him winning SBK to put paid to the "cheater" bike talk by some dang foolish souls.:shock: